Israeli–U.S. Air and Missile Defence Under Sustained Iranian Pressure

Israel’s and the United States’ regional air and missile defence, centred on Iron Dome, Patriot/THAAD and associated long‑range radar, is under mounting stress from coordinated Iranian and proxy missile and drone attacks, creating growing risk of saturation, interceptor depletion and strategic miscalculation.

Israel’s layered defence and U.S. systems in the region are struggling to cope with dense, mixed salvos, forcing multiple interceptors against individual targets and still allowing some strikes to get through.

1. We assess that continued stress on these systems will increase the likelihood of successful strikes on Israeli and U.S. defended assets, driving casualty risks and political pressure for escalatory responses to restore deterrence.

2. Visible limitations in Iron Dome and associated systems will encourage Iran and partners to refine saturation and deception tactics and may prompt regional states to question the reliability of U.S./Israeli air‑defence guarantees.

3. Managing scarce interceptor inventories will force trade‑offs between the Middle East and other priority theatres (e.g., the Indo‑Pacific), with potential knock‑on effects for broader deterrence and alliance cohesion.